Abstract:
The gap between the potential and actual output, the output gap, is a key variable for macroeconomic
forecasting, analyses and policymaking. This paper adapts different univariate statistical methods for the
estimation of the output gap for the Maldives. The analysis of the estimates shows that Beveridge-Nelson
filter is the most robust and performs better than its counterparts. In the absence of an official seasonally
adjusted Quarterly National Accounts, seasonal adjustments were also carried out using X13-ARIMA-SEATS
implemented in JDemetra+. In doing so, the paper has acted as a medium to set up an automated process to
estimate an unofficial seasonally adjusted Quarterly National Accounts and the output gap of the Maldives
as new data with revisions become available.
