Maldives : diagnostic trade integration study : volume 1

Abstract

A. GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES The Maldives is a low-lying archipelago consisting of approximately 1,190 islands, located in the Indian Ocean southwest of Sri Lanka. It has exclusive economic rights over some 859,000 km of sea surrounding the islands but its land mass is limited to only 300 km and is widely scattered over an 850 km north-south fairly narrow stretch. Its population of around 300,000 people inhabits about 200 islands, dispersed in 26 geographical atolls1, and organized in 20 regional administrative units. One third of the inhabited islands have a population of less than 500, the rest have a population of less than 1,000. This exceptionally wide dispersion of its people makes the Maldives unique, even among other countries that are archipelagos. Of the remaining islands, 87 are tourist resorts and 57 are leased for commercial agriculture or used for industrial activity and garbage storage. Accordingly, the vast majority of the islands are uninhabited although a few of these are used for subsistence agriculture. The surrounding sea contains enormous fishery resources. The islands are also an attractive tourist destination given their sandy white beaches and clear lagoons, bringing more than 600,000 tourist arrivals in 2004. The main natural endowments are thus associated with the marine environment. However, the meagre landmass is a causal factor limiting economic opportunities and market development and the country’s geographical features incur high transport costs, thus putting pressure on the competitiveness of the economy. B. GOVERNMENT The Maldives is an independent sovereign nation governed under a democratic executivestyle system. The capital Male’ is situated roughly almost at the middle of the north-south string of islands that make up the country. The president, also head of state and government, and lawmakers are elected according to universally accepted democratic principles for a term of five years. Each atoll is represented in the country’s legislature. Over the years, the country has been politically stable, and in May 2005, the first steps for introducing a multiparty system were taken. 1 Atoll is derived from the Maldivian word atholhu, the only Maldivian word that has become international. It identifies an atoll as a number of islands sharing a common outer reef; there can be one to several hundreds of islands forming an atoll. xi C. ECONOMIC TRENDS Buoyant GDP growth of up to 6 – 9 per cent year driven by investment in the tourism sector with negative or very low levels of inflation is a distinctive feature of the economy in recent years. Significant progress has also been achieved in human and social development over the past two decades. Prudent macroeconomic and public investment policies as well as a largely favourable external environment has facilitated this progress, lifting the Maldives from being one of the 20 poorest countries in the 1970s to one that shares many characteristics of a lower middle-income country today. The GDP per capita was Rf 30,733 (US$ 2,401 equivalent) in 2004. As a result, the Maldives’ graduation from LDC status is a real possibility. However, the government would prefer to delay graduation so as not to lose foreign assistance – including participation in the Integrated Framework – that is critical to the country’s recovery from the divesting tsunami that hit the Maldives and other countries in the region on 26th December 2004. Although loss of human life was minimal, it is estimated that the loss to the economy caused by the tsunami is around 62 per cent of GDP, with full recovery not expected before 2008. It is understood that the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) is sensitive to the government’s need for a carefully managed graduation programme with appropriate transition arrangements. Though liberalization of the economy is advanced and economic growth rates are nominally high, a significant proportion of the jobs created have gone to foreign workers due to rigidities in the local labour market. For a variety of reasons that is elaborated upon in the DTIS, relatively high levels of unemployment and underemployment are a distinctive characteristic of the economy. Flexibility in macro-economic policy is somewhat limited as the country’s currency, the Rufiyaa, is pegged to the US dollar. Recent developments have had a negative impact on trade and economic performance. In particular, there has been a dramatic change in 2005 following the tsunami. This resulted in a downturn in the tourism sector which contributes substantially both to GDP and to foreign exchange earnings. In addition, the garment and apparel industry literally collapsed during 2004 as the end of the Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA) quota system approached. Rising oil prices throughout 2005 and during the first half of 2006 has brought about a downward spiral in the terms of trade. The boom years that Maldives has experienced in recent years up to 2004 may now be at an end. There is therefore an urgent need to address this situation so that measures can be taken to mitigate the problems that are now being experienced. To this extent, the DTIS exercise for the Maldives has been more than timely. xii D. POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT The recent economic shocks that the country has experienced have exposed the constraints of an economy that is dependent essentially on the tourism sector and the limited intra- and inter-sectoral linkages. Moreover, lack of employment opportunities and insufficient provision of secondary and tertiary education facilities on the atolls, has caused migration to Male’. Migratory trends were further aggravated by the tsunami. As a result the Male’ population is now estimated at 70,000, whereas its theoretical capacity is 50,000. Congestion and unemployment are the immediate negative impacts. With regard to indicators of human welfare, in particular the human development index (HDI), in 2005 the Maldives was ranked 96 (HDI=0.745), behind Dominican Republic (0.749), Turkey (0.750) and Sri Lanka (0.751), ahead of Turkmenistan (0.738) and Jamaica (0.738). This is actually a small slide from a ranking of 84 in 2004 when the Maldives was ahead of Turkey (94) and Sri Lanka (96). The GDP per capita of $ 2,401 in 2004 is near that of Vietnam but below Sri Lanka and Seychelles. The Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment (VPA) carried out by UNDP in 1997 and 2004 indicated that absolute poverty is below one percent. E. TRADE PERFORMANCE AND POLICIES The Maldives economy is very open. Trade in goods typically accounts for around 75-80 per cent of GDP. If services are taken into account, trade in goods and services account for approximately 150 per cent of GDP. Imports of goods typically outweigh exports of goods (mostly fish and fish products) by a factor of between three and four. However, this large shortfall in foreign exchange earnings is to a large extent made up for by revenues from the export of services via the tourism sector. There is therefore only a relatively modest negative current accounts balance. Although there is currently very limited production activity in the Maldives, there is need to be aware of anti-export bias in the tariff structure that may impact on other sectors, such as tourism. Apparently, this problem is being addressed through the extensive use of discretionary duty concessions and exemptions. The total value of these in 2004 was Rf. 413 million, compared to actual collections of Rf 1,136 m, representing approximately 36 per cent of total revenue. In previous years the proportion of concessions and exemptions has been similar (37 per cent in 2001). In 2004 main beneficiary sectors were tourism and fisheries. Theoretically, graduation from least-developed country status will affect the privileges and preferences that Maldives currently enjoys under the multilateral trading system as an LDC member of the WTO. As the graduation of an LDC is unprecedented since the establishment of the WTO in 1995, the graduation of the Maldives will establish some important precedents for the trade body in regard to transitional arrangements. Indeed, xiii WTO members (through the Committee for Trade and Development, CTD) have responded cautiously and agreed to grant the Maldives a transitional period based on a roadmap for graduation to be prepared by the Maldives government. However, in tangible terms, there are two major consequences of Maldives graduating from LDC status: loss of preferential market access; and possible reduction in trade related technical cooperation. F. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT The business environment in the Maldives is liberal – the result of which is particularly visible in the tourism sector. As a result, the Maldives comes out fairly well in the World Bank ‘Doing Business Survey’ of such issues as ease of entry and establishment or free repatriation of profits (see the Appendix to this chapter). Indeed, given the specificity of tourism sector ‘resource-seeking’ investment, or perhaps more aptly in the Maldives case, ‘resort-seeking’ investment, a benign approach is primarily what is required to attract the necessary flows. But the business environment in the Maldives is also one in which there are significant gaps in the underlying policy, institutional and legal framework for business development and private sector support. This is reflected in the general weakness of the domestic private sector and thin national portfolio of SMEs engaged in value added activities in the dominant tourism and fishery sectors, forging stronger intraand inter-sectoral linkages, and achieving a more diversified economy. It is also true that as a small island developing economy, the business environment in the Maldives poses formidable challenges for the investor and entrepreneur. Aside from Male’, the capital, there is no significant population centre. Local markets are also difficult to reach given the exceptionally wide dispersion of people. There are therefore serious limitations on the extent to which economies of scale can be exploited. High costs of transportation, infrastructure, energy and water, complete dependence on imported technology, and unavailability of a wide range of skills are further constraints on attaining a competitive business environment. These difficulties were dramatized in the collapse of garment manufacturing when the Multi Fibre Agreement (MFA) expired at the end of 2004. The challenge for the Maldives is to put in place the necessary framework to enable it to take full advantage of its comparative advantage in the tourism and fishery sectors and strong potential in other sectors such as horticulture, port services, handicraft, aquaculture, etc. There is considerable scope for value-added business opportunities in the two main sectors and for dynamic linkages between these and other sectors. As the Appendix illustrates, on some key aspects of the business environment, the record of the Maldives is mixed. xiv G. CUSTOMS SERVICES AND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE The discussion in the DTIS of the services that facilitate trade in the Maldives is based on recognition that tourism and fishery are the most important export sectors. Currently, over 600,000 tourists a year visit the country, with projections for continuing growth. This requires adequate airport, port and transport transfer facilities to service this volume of visitors in addition to efficient importation processes for the inputs – ranging from construction materials for building and maintenance work on the resorts to food, beverages, and other consumer goods - required by the tourism sector. The fishery sector also depends on the importation of critical inputs such as fuel, boat engines and other fishing gear. Fishery exports are mostly perishable goods and therefore depend on efficient export processes. Significant constraints in hub capacity for both air and maritime transport need to be addressed. Transaction costs are lower when customs procedures are carried out efficiently. The DTIS research confirmed that there is a perception among private sector users that customs procedures are not applied in a uniform and customary way across the country. Malpractice is alleged arising from face-to-face contact between clients and customs officers. But the overall assessment of the DTIS team is that customs procedures are satisfactory although there is room for improvement. In particular, although the customs service is computerized and officers have received training in operating such tools and facilities, there are still gaps at the technical level hindering an optimal use of the technology and IT software systems available. For example, the ASYCUDA++ is not fully utilized and all potential application towards more efficient use has not been explored. In addition, current operational systems and procedures in the cargo control area impede the movement of goods and do not meet the set objective of obtaining maximum revenue at minimum cost. There is also a lack of effective communication and coordination among customs services, the trading community and other agencies (port authority, aviation services, clearing agents, coast guard or police), which adversely affects the efficiency of processes relating to the movement of goods. H. TOURISM SECTOR Very few countries in the world can offer tourists an exotic atoll environment, and even fewer countries in the world are made up of coral platforms, with the accompanying image of Robinson Cruise islands and islets with white sandy beaches, unpolluted crystal clear water and abundant marine life. Overall, the assessment of the DTIS is that institutional capacity for the development, management and implementation of tourism policy in the Maldives is adequate, although there are significant gaps and policy shortcomings. There is also an almost total absence of civil society involvement or engagement with tourism policy. xv The recommendations cover these issues including the need for support to SME development to facilitate linkages within and between tourism and other economic sectors. With foreign workers accounting for over half the total number of jobs in the tourism sector, the recommendations also deal with labour market issues, education and training. I. FISHERY SECTOR The geographical characteristics of the Maldives as an archipelago with a 960,000-km² exclusive economic zone (EEZ) make marine resources an important natural asset. The vast EEZ contains a variety of pelagic species (i.e. fish living in the open ocean) such as tuna species and mackerel, near shore reef fish species and demersal or bottom living species. There are two main commercially active sub-sectors: marine catch fishery and fish processing. There is at present no aquaculture on any commercial scale. Unlike tourism where the government is active in promoting FDI and in marketing the Maldives as a destination, the fishery sector has seen virtually no FDI and attracts relatively little government support. The assessment of the DTIS is that the overall capacity to carry out fishery policy analysis and implement development plans is considered insufficient. There is scope for upgrading the level of technical training and bringing modern methods of fishery policy management into work of the key government agencies concerned. The non-alignment of policy with commercial opportunities is further reflected in the almost total absence of aquaculture – the cultivation of certain fish species – in the Maldives although the reef provides a natural habitat. Another gap concerns the inadequate policy measures to promote the sector as an employment and business opportunity. Although fishing as such is potentially lucrative and generates average returns that are higher than income from public sector employment, as an occupation it is held in low esteem in Maldives society. The younger population shuns fishing, a trend confirmed by survey findings which shows that the average crew age is increasing. The provision of appropriate training facilities as the basis of modernization and professionalization of the occupation can help overcome this trend with significant gains for the development of the sector. Credit and business support facilities for the occupation are also required. Inadequate policy measures to promote the sector as an employment and business opportunity is also reflected in the weak linkages to the tourism industry. Although resort and catering industry chefs demand fresh reef fish, crustacean products and the more expensive tuna species such as yellowfin and bigeye for their clientele, supply has been uncertain and inconsistent, leading in some case to fish imports!