Volume 8, number 1, August 2020
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Item Survey sampling in the time of social distancing experiences from a quantitative research in the wake of COVID 19 pandemic(The Research Centre, Maldives National University, 2020-08) Riyaz, Aminath; Musthafa, Hawwa Shiuna; Abdul Raheem, Raheema; Moosa, SheenaThis paper explores the practical difficulties of conducting an online quantitative survey across the Maldives during the COVID‑19 pandemic response to study people’s values in the midst of a crisis, and addresses crisis experience and perception, value orientation, personality traits, social cohesion, and trust in relevant authorities. This paper reports on the methodological component and not on the survey findings. A stratified systematic random sampling approach was used, with stratification on urbanrural clusters (cities and other islands), gender, and age of the population to recruit at least 400 from the urban and 600 participants from the rural communities. To overcome the practical difficulty of accessing households due to restrictive measures across the Maldives and lockdown status in the greater Male’ area, the latest voters’ registry was used to select every nth participant as the sample frame. Participants were recruited through phone calls, and survey instrument shared via social media, achieving a response rate of 87%.The practical difficulties with the sampling approach were different in urbanrural clusters, ranging from securing the phone numbers for prospective participants, nonresponse to phone calls, discrepancies in internet access, and the lack of control on whether the intended participant was in fact the person completing the survey. To overcome these challenges, a mix of probability and non-probability sampling was utilised ensuring not more than one participant was recruited from any household, while adhering to the stratification of gender and age. The statistical findings on the validity and reliability of the data show that the recruited sample is representative of the population. This outcome highlights the adaptability and applicability of established quantitative research methods to a geographically dispersed small island developing state, under nonconventional situations.Item Nowcasting the COVID 19 epidemic in the Maldives(The Research Centre, Maldives National University, 2020-08) Moosa, Sheena; Usman, Sofoora KawsarThe novelty of COVID‑19 prompted reliance on mathematical modelling to guide decision making and planning pandemic response. The compartment model using suspected, infected recovered and death (SIRD) as used in the Maldives to forecast the epidemic which was nowcasted (adjusted in real-time) to produce parameters on epidemic progression in the Male’ area to allow for quick decision making. Deriving the model input parameters were challenging and introduced a greater level of uncertainty in model output parameters. Recognition of the data limitation in presenting model outputs allowed for quick decision making in the COVID‑19 early phase towards control of the epidemic.