A troubled future for democracy : the results of the 2015 Maldives democracy survey

Abstract

Since the first multiparty elections in 2008, democratisation in the Maldives has been challenged in many ways. One of the main factors is political turmoil. By the time the second multiparty presidential elections in 2013 finally came to an end after a series of delays and cancellations by the Supreme Court, the country appeared to be at a political breaking point. The atmosphere of relative calm that prevailed after the losing parties conceded defeat soon again gave way to political uncertainty. The recent arrest and prosecution of politicians has worsened the crisis of politics. This bitter partisan politics has not spared key democratic institutions, such as the judiciary and the parliament, further challenging democratisation. Successful democratisation also depends on the availability of a supporting set of democratic orientations and values held by citizens. It also depends on the political empowerment and engagement of citizens. The 2015 Democracy Survey, like the benchmark Democracy Survey in 2013, is premised in the widely held beliefs that successful democratisation everywhere depends on supporting values and orientations – that is, a democratic political culture. The survey provides a wealth of reliable and systematic information about Maldivian political culture. Our hope is that the systematic evidence presented here will help policymakers, civic and political organisations, state and private institutions, and the international community, in addressing some of the many challenges of democratisation in the Maldives. The 2015 Democracy Survey is also a nationwide survey of the adult population in the Maldives aged 18 years or older. It is based on a random sample stratified proportionally across the regions of the Maldives. The 2014 Maldives Population and Housing Census data was used as the listing of people above 18 years of age. This is the most up-to-date listing available in the country. Census 2014 preliminary data shows there are 341,256 people above 18 years of age. Hence, the target population for the survey is 341,256. The size of the sample for the survey is 1,064 people. The report has five sections: section I concerns the more general citizen orientations and views on democracy and the levels of engagement that together partly constitute “political culture”. Section II is about their views on more specific aspects of the political context in the Maldives. The report then presents, in section III, levels of public confidence in a range of institutions important for democracy and the country. In section IV, the analysis focuses on citizens’ views on gender equality and women’s political participation. Finally, section V deals with people’s attitudes towards political parties that form the backbone of political society.