Solar model validation report : solar resources mapping in the Maldives

Abstract

Background This Model Validation Report presents results of preliminary validation of solar resource and meteorological modelled data, within Phase 1 of the project Renewable Energy Resource Mapping for the Republic of the Maldives. This part of the project focuses on solar resource mapping and measurement services as part of a technical assistance in the renewable energy development implemented by the World Bank in Maldives. It is being undertaken in close coordination with the Ministry of Environment and Energy (MEE) of Maldives, the World Bank’s primary country counterpart for this project. This project is funded by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), both administered by the World Bank and supported by bilateral donors. Objective, data and methods The objective of this report is to document validation of solar resources calculated by satellite-based model SolarGIS and validation of meteorological data derived from the numerical weather model CFSR and CFSv2. Inventory in Chapter 3 identifies the existing data sources in the region: solar, aerosol and meteorological data. Aerosol data (more specifically Aerosol Optical Depth, AOD) from the MACC-II model is evaluated in Chapter 4, as this data is one of the inputs to SolarGIS clear-sky model. Chapter 5 shows relative comparison of SolarGIS GHI and DNI to other modelled databases. This chapter includes also the validation of SolarGIS in respect to solar resource measurements available in tropical climate of Asia. Chapter 6 shows validation of meteorological parameters that are delivered in the form of site-specific data sets and maps. Chapter 7 summarizes validation results in the interim estimate of uncertainty. Results Validation shows stable performance of SolarGIS model in the equatorial tropical region, though with higher uncertainty (compared to some other geographical regions). The SolarGIS uncertainty of the model can be reduced in Maldives, providing that high-quality solar resource measurements are available. The modelling results are presented in the Solar Modelling Report 129-01/2015.