Nowcasting the COVID 19 epidemic in the Maldives

Abstract

The novelty of COVID‑19 prompted reliance on mathematical modelling to guide decision making and planning pandemic response. The compartment model using suspected, infected recovered and death (SIRD) as used in the Maldives to forecast the epidemic which was nowcasted (adjusted in real-time) to produce parameters on epidemic progression in the Male’ area to allow for quick decision making. Deriving the model input parameters were challenging and introduced a greater level of uncertainty in model output parameters. Recognition of the data limitation in presenting model outputs allowed for quick decision making in the COVID‑19 early phase towards control of the epidemic.