Material requirements for adapting to climate change in the Maldives

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are on the frontlines of climate change, making adaptation increasingly urgent. This growing challenge is driving the implementation of reactive hard engineered adaptation measures, which can be distinguished by two major strategies: shoreline protection such as breakwaters, groynes, and revetments, and the other by reclaiming and raising land. While these measures may mitigate the immediate impacts of climate change, they demand significant quantities of materials - much of which are imported potentially exacerbating systemic risks and creating long-term lock-in effects. Herein, we analyze material requirements for climate adaptation in the Maldives from the year 2000 to 2100. The Maldives are a low-lying island nation with ~0.5M inhabitants and an average height of one meter above sea level, susceptible to rising seas and wave surges. Using GIS-based material stock and flow analysis, we quantify materials required for the two hard adaptation strategies: shoreline protection and the reclamation and raising of islands that depend on large-scale seabed dredging and material imports. Possible future material requirements are estimated by scenario modelling considering sea level rise (SLR) and political responses. Results indicate that hard-engineering adaptation projects are highly resource-intensive and reinforced by further adaptations to rising seas, as well as greater wave exposures. This escalating cycle of material demand for climate adaptation in the Maldives is driving material lock-in effects which amplifies economic risk and perpetuate import dependencies.